It’s not the 1st time a language/tool will be lost to the annals of the job market, eg VB6 or FoxPro. Though previously all such cases used to happen gradually, giving most people enough time to adapt to the changes.
I wonder what’s it going to be like this time now that the machine, w/ the help of humans of course, can accomplish an otherwise multi-month risky corporate project much faster? What happens to all those COBOL developer jobs?
Pray share your thoughts, esp if you’re a COBOL professional and have more context around the implication of this announcement 🙏
This sounds no different than the static analysis tools we’ve had for COBOL for some time now.
The problem isn’t a conversion of what may or may not be complex code, it’s taking the time to prove out a new solution.
I can take any old service program on one of our IBM i machines and convert it out to Java no problem. The issue arises if some other subsystem that relies on that gets stalled out because the activation group is transient and spin up of the JVM is the stalling part.
Now suddenly, I need named activation and that means I need to take lifetimes into account. Static values are now suddenly living between requests when procedures don’t initial them. And all of that is a great way to start leaking data all over the place. And when you suddenly start putting other people’s phone numbers on 15 year contracts that have serious legal ramifications, legal doesn’t tend to like that.
It isn’t just enough to convert COBOL 1:1 to Java. You have to have an understanding of what the program is trying to get done. And just looking at the code isn’t going to make that obvious. Another example, this module locks a data area down because we need this other module to hit an error condition. The restart condition for the module reloads it into a different mode that’s appropriate for the process which sends a message to the guest module to unlock the data area.
Yes, I shit you not. There is a program out there doing critical work where the expected execution path is to on purpose cause an error so that some part of code in the recovery gets ran. How many of you think an AI is going to pick up that context?
The tools back then were limited and so programmers did all kinds of hacky things to get particular things done. We’ve got tools now to fix that, just that so much has already been layered on top of the way things work right now. Pair with the whole, we cannot buy a second machine to build a new system and any new program must work 99.999% right out of the gate.
COBOL is just a language, it’s not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is the expectation. These systems run absolutely critical functions that just simply cannot fail. Trying to foray into Java or whatever language means we have to build a system that doesn’t have 45 years worth of testing that runs perfectly. It’s just not a realistic expectation.
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Why Java instead of C# or Go though?
Because IBM doesn’t want to tie themselves to Google or Microsoft. They already have their own builds of OpenJDK.
No. Because IBM sells WebSphere, so java it is so they can up sell you for more contract labor.
Because Cobol is mainly used in an enterprise environment, where they most likely already run Java software which interfaces with the old Cobol software. Plus modern Java is a pretty good language, it’s not 2005 anymore.
Java is a POS and that’s before log4j.
That’s alot of effort to go from one horrible programming language to another horrible programming language.
Yes. Leave it to IBM to take a terrible idea and make it worse.
Converting ancient code to a more modern language seems like a great use for AI, in all honesty. Not a lot of COBOL devs out there but once it’s Java the amount of coders available to fix/improve whatever ChatGPT spits out jumps exponentially!
The fact that you say that tells me that you don’t know very much about software engineering. This whole thing is a terrible idea, and has the potential to introduce tons of incredibly subtle bugs and security flaws. ML + LLM is not ready to be used for stuff like this at the moment in anything outside of an experimental context. Engineers are generally - and with very good reason - deeply wary of “too much magic” and this stuff falls squarely into that category.
All of that is mentioned in the article. Given how much it cost last time a company tried to convert from COBOL, don’t be surprised when you see more businesses opt for this cheaper path. Even if it only converts half of the codebase, that’s still a huge improvement.
Doing this manually is a tall order…
Yeah, I read the article.
They’re MASSIVELY handwaving a lot of detail away. Moreover, they’re taking the “we’ll fix it in post” approach by suggesting “we can just run an armful of security analysis software on the code after the system spits something out”. While that’s a great sentiment, you (and everyone considering this approach) needs to consider that complex systems are pretty much NEVER perfect. There WILL be misses. Add this to the fact that a ton of organizations that still use COBOL are banks - which are generally considered fairly critical to the day-to-day operation of our society, and you can see why I am incredibly skeptical of this whole line of thinking.
I’m sure the IBM engineers who made the thing are extremely good at what they do, but at the same time, I have a lot less faith in the organizations that will actually employ the system. In fact, I wouldn’t be terribly shocked to find that banks would assign an inappropriately junior engineer to the task - perhaps even an intern - because “it’s as simple as invoking a processing pipeline”. This puts a truly hilarious amount of trust into what’s effectively a black box.
Additionally, for a good engineer, learning any given programming language isn’t actually that hard. And if these transition efforts are done in what I would consider to be the right way, you’d also have a team of engineers who know both the input and output languages such that they can go over (at the very, very least) critical and logically complex areas of the code to ensure accuracy. But since this is all about saving money, I’d bet that step simply won’t be done.
Trusting IBM engineers, perhaps…sales/marketing? Oooh now I am skeptical.
For those who have never worked on legacy systems. Any one who suggests “we’ll fix it in post” is asking you to do something that just CANNOT happen.
The systems I code for, if something breaks, we’re going to court over it. Not, oh no let’s patch it real quick, it’s your ass is going to be cross examined on why the eff your system just wrote thousands of legal contracts that cannot be upheld as valid.
Yeah, that fix it in post shit any article, especially this one that’s linked, suggests should be considered trash that has no remote idea how deep in shit one can be if you start getting wild hairs up your ass for changing out parts of a critical system.
Even if it only converts half of the codebase, that’s still a huge improvement.
The problem is it’ll convert 100% of the code base but (you hope) 50% of it will actually be correct. Which 50%? That’s left as an exercise to the reader. There’s no human, no plan, no logic necessarily to how it was converted also so it can be very difficult to understand code like that and you can’t ask the person who wrote why stuff is a certain way.
Understanding large, complex codebases one didn’t write is a difficult task even under pretty ideal conditions.
First, odds are only half the code is used, and in that half, 20% has bugs that the system design obscures. It’s that 20% that tends to take the lionshare of modernization effort.
It wasn’t a bug then, though it was there, but it is a bug now.
If even highly skilled humans couldn’t do that, artificial pseudointelligence doesn’t stand a chance in hell.
There’s nothing of substance here. Just suits chasing buzzwords. Nothing will actually happen, just like nothing actually happened every other time some fancy new programming language or methodology came along and tried to replace COBOL, including Java.
This is what I don’t get. Rewriting COBOL code into Java code is dead easy. You could teach a junior dev COBOL (assuming this hasn’t been banned under the Geneva Convention yet) and have them spitting out Java code in weeks for a lot cheaper.
The problem isn’t converting COBOL code to Java code. The problem is converting COBOL code to Java code so that it cannot ever possibly have even the most minute difference or bug under any possible circumstances ever. Even the tiniest tiniest little “oh well that’s just a silly little thing” bug could cost billions of dollars in the financial world. That’s why you need to pay COBOL experts millions of dollars to manage your COBOL code.
I don’t understand what person looked at this problem and said “You know what never does anything wrong or makes any mistake ever? Generative AI”
Ooh good point
What if IBM had a product that did the COBOL->Java conversion (no what if tbh, believe it exists), then just changed the marketing material to make it seem flashy?
So like, you think it’s Ai but really it’s the same grammar translation functions that have been around for ever.
Not a cobol professional but i know companies that have tried (and failed) to migrate from cobol to java because of the enormously high stakes involved (usually financial).
LLMs can speed up the process, but ultimately nobody is going to just say “yes, let’s accept all suggested changes the LLM makes”. The risk appetite of companies won’t change because of LLMs.
Wonder what makes it so difficult. “Cobol to Java” doesn’t sound like an impossible task since transpilers exist. Maybe they can’t get similar performance characteristics in the auto-transpiled code?
Translating it isn’t the difficult part. It’s convincing a board room full of billionaires that they should flip the switch and risk having their entire system go down for a day because somebody missed a bug in the code and then having to explain to some combination of very angry other billionaires and very angry financial regulators why they broke the economy for the day.
Well, I’d rather the day be sooner than later. Also, this is why you have… Backup servers and development environments. You don’t just flick the Switch randomly one day after code is made. You run months and months of simulated transactions on the new code until you get an adequate amount of bugs fixed.
There will come a time when these old COBOL machines will just straight die, and they can’t be assed to keep making new hardware for them. And the programmers will all die out too. And then your shit out of luck. I’d rather the last few remaining COBOL programmers help translate to some other long lasting language before they all kick the bucket and not after.
Nah, dump it all.
COBOL programs don’t handle utf8 and other modern things like truly variable length strings.
Best thing to do is refactor and periodically test by turning off the mainframe system to see what breaks. Why something was done is lost to the sands of time at this point.
So a ‘compiler’ then? From a fairly straightforward easy to use COBOL to whatever. makes sense. can the new code work in the mainframe environment? or is that what this piracy is about?
har har har.
:D
