• 2 Posts
  • 26 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
Cake day: July 12th, 2023
  • thechadwick@lemmy.worldtopolitics @lemmy.world•If Polling Error Matches 2016 and 2020, Trump Is Ahead In 2024
    12·
    27 days ago

    Let’s add to the list, almost four years of operatives infiltrating their way into the election certification process. Not to get too tinfoil hatty, but the addiction denial strategy almost worked last time, and while the same team that orchestrated it no longer occupied the White house, state officials open to the scheme likely won’t make the same mistakes this time.

    It’s a different election now with Harris taking the Dem nomination, but 2020 was decided by about 40k votes spread across a few key states. The same polarization that makes polling almost impossible to do accurately also means people’s opinions are equally hard to change. Don’t try. Instead, focus your efforts on mobilizing voters to turn out. Organize and make a plan to get yourself to the polls and to bring a friend. Check vote.gov and make sure you’re still registered and make sure the reasonable people in your life have too! Uncle ivermectin isn’t changing his mind about the trans panic, but there’s going to be a significant portion of the population that just doesn’t have time to vote between working the jobs to stay afloat. Get them a mail in ballot!

    I’ve checked my registration about 25 times this month after learning I had mysteriously dropped from the rolls in a swing state. Don’t let some jackass take your opportunity to vote away. It may be our last change to finally stop hearing about every single stupid thing that comes out of the mouths of the worst people in government. Winning is the only way to fix what’s broken in our system.

  • thechadwick@lemmy.worldtopolitics @lemmy.world•California sheriff quips he’s ‘changing teams,’ urges support for ‘convicted felon’ Trump
    16·
    3 months ago

    Obligatory crooked timber post:

    https://crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/liberals-against-progressives/#comment-729288

    “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protectes but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”

    It’s pretty nakedly just a cult of personality with no other policy platforms that I recognize. For 50 years quality of life for Americans had meaningfully stagnated or declined. It’s brutal paying so much for groceries and gasoline when rent has been commodified. Answering that with mythical “I alone can fix it” is a very attractive and easily understood pitch. A lecture about the nuances of globalization and market efficiency is not. As important as bathroom access and preferred pronouns are, they too are not a sufficient political answer for a minimum wage that hasn’t matched productivity for decades.

    It’s a leadership issue but any sane person would never subject themselves or their families to running for office in a news environment like America’s. That leaves us with a government composed primarily by clinical narcissists and grifters.

    Feels bad.

  • thechadwick@lemmy.worldtopolitics @lemmy.world•Arab Americans reject Biden, Trump reelection: Survey
    3·
    4 months ago

    CIS had an interesting chat with John Mearscheimer about Israel that’s unsurprising, but worth the listen. The host commented with a running joke that, "having been strongly supportive of Netanyahu after October 7, Joe Biden is seriously invested in the two-state solution—Michigan and Pennsylvania (@1:17:38)

    Tough sell. Sure it’s obvious who will make the situation measurably worse in nearly every way, but it’s really hard to motivate and mobilize a voting block on harm reduction, when the incumbent elicits strongly emotional revulsion right now.

    Recency bias, negativity bias, etc. are so hard to overcome. It’s like trying to logic your way out of an argument someone has emotion’d themselves into. You may know the answer conceptually, but actually feeling ok about it enough to act isn’t a logic proposition. It’s one of the most emotionally charged decisions we make.

    Not a demographic I’d be counting on showing up in large numbers if I we’re a campaign strategist. Sadly, Trump is retaining well over 90% of his voting coalition from 2020, whereas Biden is only retaining a fraction of his (very diverse) block. Since the election will come down to a very small number of votes, he’s going to need all of his 2020 coalition to show up. 4 years of reality make that a hard bargain for Arab Americans and Republicans who held their noses after Jan 6 and voted blue though. Ugh.

    Link to the video: https://youtu.be/kAfIYtpcBxo

    Piped bot, assemble!

  • thechadwick@lemmy.worldtopolitics @lemmy.world•Biden on hot mic: ‘Come-to-Jesus meeting’ with Netanyahu on the way
    17·
    6 months ago

    You’ve received several responses but the meaningful “come to Jesus” story actually relates to Saul (Paul, who is responsible for much of Christianity) on the road to Damascus.

    Paul was persecuting primitive Christians and while he was traveling to Damascus to arrest them, he was temporarily blinded by divine intervention that led to his conversion and stopped him from continuing to persecute people. The dramatic intervention disabused him of the errant beliefs that caused him to injure people, in other words.

    See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conversion_of_Paul_the_Apostle

    That’s what the comparison is talking about. It’s a metaphor that relates to needing a dramatic and often violent wakeup call to snap someone out of doing something wrong. From a Christian perspective you can see how Paul being shaken up enough to change his name, religion, profession, etc was a real “come to Jesus” moment.

    That’s the key context I think you’re asking about. It’s not really about converting to Christianity. It’s more about having a BIG wakeup call that you’re on the wrong path (literally in Paul’s case) and you need to change your ways because you’re hurting people (or you’ll stay blinded if you’re Paul I guess).

    Hope that helps!

  • thechadwick@lemmy.worldtopolitics @lemmy.world•The Judges Who Ruled Against La Gordiloca Are Criminalizing Watchdog Journalism
    2·
    8 months ago

    Something’s going to have to give and soon. Police need to carry individual malpractice insurance, where gross negligence results in personal liability, and blanket qualified immunity as a whole needs to go.

    No other institution has built a self-licking ice cream cone like law enforcement. The US health care system certainly tries, but at least it doesn’t have a monopoly on the use of force. Until the incentives change, there’s no future where civil relations recover. You just can’t remove liability for bad faith abuse of power and expect an organization to self-police its behavior.

    Crushingly ironic that the “don’t tread on me” crowd are the loudest proponents of the wholesale gutting of freedom of the press/speech…

  • thechadwick@lemmy.worldtopolitics @lemmy.world•The Judges Who Ruled Against La Gordiloca Are Criminalizing Watchdog Journalism
    2·
    8 months ago

    This is in fact, a much better article and (horrifying texan political hellscape aside) the key except is copied here for convenience:

    Begin quote: The Texas statute she was charged under made it a crime to solicit non-public information from a government official with an intent to obtain a benefit. Prosecutors alleged she used the information to amass more Facebook followers.

    A Texas state court judge in 2018 tossed the charges, finding the law unconstitutionally vague, and she sued in 2019. A judge ruled the officers and prosecutors were entitled to qualified immunity, but a 2-1 panel reversed in 2021.

    But in Tuesday’s ruling, U.S. Circuit Judge Edith Jones, an appointee of Republican former President Ronald Reagan, said law enforcement officers were not required to predict whether the Texas law at issue was constitutional before arresting her.