Oh no, you!

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Joined 11 days ago
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Cake day: November 3rd, 2024

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  • Apart from my mortgage, I’m finally debt free, and I’m running a surplus every month after all the bills are paid.

    Well, except what we jokingly refer to as my “cripling gambling-induced credit card debt”; I returned some bottles while at the store the other day. The payout wasn’t a lot, but enough to cover the mundane items I was buying. Instead of dealing with the bottle return receipt I pushed that button where it buys you a small lottery ticket instead and the money is donated to red cross. Not surprisingly, I didn’t win. When at the checkout counter I realized that my GF still had my usual card after borrowing it earlier, so I had to use my credit card to pay the laughably small sum.









  • The way I (state certified smoothbrain) think of it is this: Cash reserves serve as short time collateral when a state is shopping on credit (which states usually do). So your transactions need to be backed by a currency your trading partner is willing to accept.

    Other types of reserves exist, but these usually need to be converted first, which adds a layer of delay and transaction that makes it a more long term thing.

    Not sure how correct it is, but I find that this oversimplification works and is correct most of the time.










  • BuT tHeY wErE WrOnG iN 2016!1

    Yes, and no. They estimated a slightly higher chance for a Hillary win over a Donald win, but they were well within the margin of polling error, and they have been for every election. Plus people have a tendency of over-valuing a “51% chance to win”.

    While this is good news, it could mean nothing.

    EDIT: 538 explained it better than I ever could:
    "Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically ahead.”