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Cake day: July 9th, 2023

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  • If Trump wins, all these idiots that voted for him because “thuh conomee was better” are going to act all shocked when he actually does all the really insane stuff he’s promising to do and tried to do in his first term but the handful of rational Republicans around him stopped him from doing.

    I saw interviews with voters recently that basically showed people don’t believe he’ll do all the crazy stuff he’s promising, that it’s just a negotiation tactic or to “keep the base onboard” or to “generate attention.”

    When things really go to shit, I guarantee the people that voted for him will take no responsibility for it.



  • Stephen Miller is an advisor to Trump and is probably a psychopath. I don’t use that label lightly either.

    When a normal person gets genuinely angry, their facial expressions and body language convey the anger too. It’s a natural reaction humans have when experiencing emotions and it’s tough to hide or fake.

    Stephen Miller raises his voice, he uses an indignant tone, he makes aggressive motions with his body, but his face shows no change in expression at all. It’s not just this clip either, he’s like this all the time. He’s generally good at lying and changing topics during normal interviews, but he was cornered here and fell back to “pretend to be angry and change the topic.” Clearly this reporter was having none of it.



  • The role of a district court judge is to do two things:

    1. Apply existing precedent to individual cases to the greatest extent possible.
    2. Set new precedent only when absolutely necessary because the facts of the case don’t align well to existing precedent.

    Cannon has basically decided to do the exact opposite of these two rules by pretending that the facts of this case are so incredibly unprecedented that she has to throw out the rulebook and set new precedents on everything.

    Literally the only unusual thing about this case is that the defendant, a private citizen who currently gets free government security protection for the rest of his life, used to be a president. That’s it. Everything else about this case is straightforward obstruction of justice and willful retention of national security information.




  • We’re not in a recession. Economic growth last quarter was almost 5% (which is massive) and growth has been positive for the last 4 quarters. The average quarterly growth over the last several decades has been closer to 2%.

    The economy is doing just fine. Frankly, most people hear their neighbors complain about the economy, so they think the economy is bad, so they complain about the economy, and the result is everyone thinking the economy is terrible when it objectively isn’t.

    Inflation is relatively high by recent historical standards, but it’s really not that high anymore and hasn’t been for most of 2023. People got sticker shock during the height of it last year and haven’t forgotten. But the labor market is still tight, people who gave up trying to find work a long time ago are entering the market and getting jobs again, wages continue to rise, business investment is up, and small businesses are being created at a historically rapid pace.

    When pollsters ask people, “how is your personal financial situation?”, most people are answering “good.” When those same people are asked, “how do you think everyone else’s financial situation is?”, they scream “TERRIBLE!” That doesn’t mean there aren’t people suffering, but things aren’t nearly as gloomy as everyone insists they are.


  • That and the fact that there’s a not insignificant number of people who are center-right politically and identify as Republican but don’t like Trump or the recent direction of the party. It’s not a majority or even a plurality of Republicans, but it’s enough to have an impact in close races.

    Biden attacking “MAGA Republicans” instead of “Republicans” gives the center-right voters a permission structure to support Democrats because the choice gets reframed from “us (Democrats) vs. you (Republicans)” to “us (the sane ones) vs. them (the crazies)”.





  • The thing to remember about most Republicans (and Republican politicians especially) is that any arguments they throw out in pursuit of a particular goal only apply to that goal.

    Impeachment of Trump was bad, so they said the Speaker didn’t have the power, that impeachment should be only for extreme situations, that high crimes and misdemeanors means you have to break the law to be impeached, that Democrats were on a mission to impeach Trump since he was elected.

    But now, impeachment of Biden is good, so the Speaker clearly has the power to initiate an inquiry, that vague, shady insinuations with no hard evidence is sufficient to impeach, that they’re definitely not on a witch-hunt to impeach Biden despite investigating him from the moment they got their majority and moving forward to impeach with zero actual evidence.

    You can point out their hypocrisy and they won’t defend themselves. Some of them might even try to convince you the situation is somehow different, but most don’t care. They set their sights on a goal and backfill an argument to justify it.