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Joined 4 months ago
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Cake day: May 6th, 2024

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  • Here’s the list of states and electoral college votes:

    https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/allocation

    Just don’t think about the popular vote. It has no bearing on who wins the Presidency in the US.

    You can argue that it should but just accept that under the current rules it does not.

    As far as your question “If Kamala wins the popular vote, how much does she have to win by to flip the electoral college to her side?” the only answer is “it depends”

    It depends because as amazingly stupid as this sounds, one vote for a candidate counts either more or less depending on which state it came from.

    Example of California (most people) and Wyoming (least people)

        California:
            Electoral Votes: 55
            Population: 39,500,000
            Weight:  0.00000139
    
        Wyoming:
            Electoral Votes: 3
            Population: 580,000
            Weight:  0.00000517
    

    A vote in Wyoming (0.00000517) affects the outcome of the electoral college much more than a vote in California (0.00000139).

    Another way of looking at it is that one electoral college vote in California represents the will of a little over 718,000 residents, while in Wyoming it represents the will of a little over 193,000 people.

    Things get even trickier when you factor in the fact that some states split the EC votes based on popular vote or district, and other states are a winner-take-all (whichever candidate takes the state takes all the EC votes.)

    It’s a giant complex mess and it cannot be easily related to the popular vote.








  • So my first question is how can it be that my little mini J1900 Celeron (2 GHz) with 4 GB RAM cannot handle this bandwith?

    • check ethtool for link speed: sudo ethtool enp2s0 | egrep 'Speed|Duplex' Your device name may be different from enp2s0. use ip link to see all devices. if it’s not
    Speed: 1000Mb/s
    Duplex: Full
    

    then that’s probably a bad sign.

    • that is a 10 year old celeron processor. celeron were the budget (a.k.a. cheapest, slowest) class processor at the time. it’s quite likely that it cannot keep up.
    • If you still think it’s not CPU directly, use iotop to see if you have I/O bottleneck.



  • You make it seem like the US’s market will need to experience the same thing eventually.

    You make it seem like it didn’t already: The US market didn’t reach its 1929 peak again until 1954. 25 years is a long time to hold out on withdrawing your retirement investments.

    Here’s two other modern markets:

    The Athens Stock Exchange had peaks in the 2000’s that haven’t recovered.

    Ukraine’s stock market has ceased operations since the invasion.

    These events are rare, but not unheard of.


  • At least as close as anything can be guaranteed in this world

    Turns out “close to guaranteed” is in fact, not “guaranteed.”

    So much so that if you pick any 25 year period over the last 200 years, you won’t find a single instance where the total value of the all traded stocks was worth less at the end than at the start.

    Here’s my 25 how did they do:

    • Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
    • Washington Mutual Inc.
    • General Motors Corporation
    • Enron Corporation
    • WorldCom Inc.
    • CIT Group Inc.
    • Chrysler LLC
    • Thornburg Mortgage Inc.
    • Conseco Inc.
    • MF Global Holdings Ltd.
    • Energy Future Holdings Corp.
    • Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
    • Toys “R” Us Inc.
    • Sears Holdings Corporation
    • Blockbuster Inc.
    • Eastman Kodak Company
    • American Airlines (AMR Corporation)
    • Frontier Communications Corporation
    • Hertz Global Holdings Inc.
    • JC Penney
    • Peabody Energy Corporation
    • RadioShack Corporation
    • Remington Outdoor Company
    • Pier 1 Imports Inc.
    • Purdue Pharma L.P.

    (hint: they’ve all filed for bankruptcy at some point)

    Again, look at the Nikkei from the 1990’s - that’s an entire index that was flat for 30 years. Hard to put off retirement for 30 years waiting for that index fund to pay off.

    Don’t bother dying on this hill, son, there’s plenty of other, nicer hills to die on.


  • It becomes gambling when you are going on gut feelings without researching what you’re doing.

    If you have an investment strategy that financial advisors approve of, let’s say investing 70% in a US index fund, 20% bonds and 10% high risk mutual funds that you don’t touch for years or decades, that’s investing.

    If you’re just randomly picking stocks, buying and selling in order to make a quick buck because of some guy screaming at you on television without any real research into a company other than a few google searches, that’s gambling.

    I want to remind everyone that there is no guarantee that the market / index funds continue to go up. It hasn’t happened in the US market, but look at the Nikkei over the last 30 years - if you had invested in the 90s you would only now be getting some of your money back - that is a long time.