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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • The Polymarket prediction markets gives odds for who will win the presidential election and who will win the democratic nominee. We can compare the odds of each candidate and use Bayes Theorem to determine their chances of winning the presidency if they secure the DNC nomination.

    Here’s the results as of posting this comment:

    Joe Biden: 27% Kamala Harris: 50% Michelle Obama: 100% Gavin Newsom: 66% Other: 50%

    Obviously this doesn’t work perfectly (the Michelle Obama example especially is bizarre), but there is over $300M behind these numbers so people seem to think they’re at least somewhat accurate.

    TLDR: there is a lot of money that thinks Joe Biden is one of the worst options








  • Since taking office Dec. 10, Milei devalued the peso 54% and eliminated price controls on hundreds of everyday consumer products, reversing the policies imposed by former Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who ran against him for president. The libertarian leader also halted runaway money-printing that had flared up during the presidential campaign.

    It seems like this guy is making the right decisions here. Seems like he’s ripping off the bandaid for a problem that previous administrations had created. We’ll see if he can right the ship.


  • I think his rationale is to take away monetary control from future administrations, which I think is a laudable goal. Argentina should be the richest country in South America, but its people keep getting robbed by the printing press. I wonder if going to a gold standard (or if they feel like rolling the dice, a Bitcoin standard) would be a better option.

    (Cue the anti-crypto arguments because I mentioned Bitcoin)



  • I’m not a big fan of karma either, I definitely don’t want to see it baked into the core protocol. However with this implementation, it doesn’t seem to harmful as most users won’t have it.

    I would also love to see some experimentation with different methods of assigning karma on the fediverse. The Community Notes algorithm from twitter is very interesting as it boosts answers that have support across many groups of users. It’s an attempt to encourage answers that reach across divides, instead of ones that foster echo chambers.

    Let a million experimental flowers bloom!








  • Obviously if the state doesn’t enforce the titles they’re useless. Sure if the president of a corrupt country decided he wants your house he’s gonna get it. But a DLT would prevent lower level corruption that relies on the benefit of the doubt.

    If a corrupt official uses their access to change the PDF title of your house to be in his name, he could take that to court to take your house from you. A ledger would prevent that change from happening, or at least leave a permanent record of the change