The numbers I gave are the model outputs for the state as of yesterday off his subscriber based model talk page.
So no.
Of course these are the likelihood of a win and not polling differences. That’s why I said model output, not a poll aggregate.
An 8 point spread in a state for polling averages is incredibly large. For reference Ohio is as deeply spread red in polling averages as Nee Jersey is blue. You think New Jersey votes red this year in any reasonable reality? No.
For an even more crazy but accurate comparison: Alaska has the same mid point statistical odds of going Texas Ohio, but its error bars are more than double Ohio. Meaning? There is an incredibly slim but massively more possible chance Alaska goes blue than Ohio.
The numbers I gave are the model outputs for the state as of yesterday off his subscriber based model talk page.
So no.
Of course these are the likelihood of a win and not polling differences. That’s why I said model output, not a poll aggregate.
An 8 point spread in a state for polling averages is incredibly large. For reference Ohio is as deeply spread red in polling averages as Nee Jersey is blue. You think New Jersey votes red this year in any reasonable reality? No.
For an even more crazy but accurate comparison: Alaska has the same mid point statistical odds of going Texas Ohio, but its error bars are more than double Ohio. Meaning? There is an incredibly slim but massively more possible chance Alaska goes blue than Ohio.