The quote:
āGiven Joe Bidenās incredible record, given Donald Trumpās terrible record: he should be mopping the floor with Donald Trump. Joe Biden is running against a criminal. It should not be even close. And there is only one reason it is close. And that is the presidentās age.ā
You make reasonable points, but here are a couple light rebuttals which ultimately amount to my idea that the risks of replacing Biden outweigh the risks of keeping him on the ticket.
Iām skeptical of the candidate even having to set up a full campaign, because theyāll have the name recognition already. If itās the result of 5 debates between younger Democrats including Harris, that is going to be blasted on every news channel. Not to mention, a giant campaign isnāt exactly helping Biden. The negative press alone from them trying to shield him probably set him back enough that heāll lose.
Regarding the ads having already been reserved, I wonāt pretend to know how any of that works, but wouldnāt you think that would also hinder Trump? As all his ads would be toward Biden and not the candidate? He would somehow have to pivot his attacks. Harris is easier for Trump to attack, because heās been doing it for years now, along with Fox News. Regardless, I donāt find much sway in that argument , just because Iām not sure ads are really going to do much to swing moderate or independent voters.
I donāt think the public is politically aware enough to realize Harris is the ānext in line,ā as you infer, so I really donāt think theyād be alienating black or female voters.
(Side note: I think the whole idea of Harris being the one to be āpassed overā is such a bullshit modern political take. Just like how it was Hillaryās turn, or Bidenās turn. That kinda shit is what got us here now, instead of choosing the best candidate we always seem to choose the one who should be, or who is due next. Really fucking frustrating.)
Finally, the media is already having a feeding frenzy on Biden, a well-tested candidate with lots of experience. He is down in the polls in swing states, heās getting grilled by his own party, and his numerous attempts of damage control have done little to assuage the concerns from congresspeople, but Iād also guess voters, as well. Iām sorry but I just donāt think Biden can beat Trump, and I think he should step aside for either Harris or, in my preference, let the DNC shake it out with some debates.
I donāt think either us are wrong since weāre in unprecedented territory. Almost any scenario could happen. My main concern is that calling for a different candidate is easy and no one is addressing the hard parts of a campaign and building a winning coalition.
The ad buys for September and October are probably just reserved at this point with content to come later. Thereās probably lots of flexibility for presidential campaigns but, like any project, a last minute change with no new deadline will make it all worse.
And whether we like it or not, plenty of people support Kamala Harris. And not just her. All the potential candidates. Weāre all imagining our fave will get the nod but only one will. People say Gavin Newsome but he had an affair with his campaign managerās wife. How is that going to play with voters? No idea. Maybe Trump is so bad, itās a footnote but maybe it makes enough suburbanites disgusted. I donāt know.
Yeah, I agree, although I suspect both of us are wrong rather than neither of us being wrong haha
Gotcha about the ad buys though. Weāll just have to see what happens I guess. Bottom line though, vote blue no matter who.