I was wondering if a VPN would add any kind of security or privacy if one is connecting to a host with a client/browser that supports DNS over HTTPS and that host supports encrypted client hello. Is there a way for the ISP or anything in between to shape traffic or even know what is being accessed? The only thing that should be visible is traffic between two IP addresses right?
That "traffic between two IP addresse"s is enough reason to use a VPN you trust.
Put it this way, bit torrent traffic can be encrypted and routed over standard ports to make it look like regular web traffic, so still “just traffic between two IP addresses” but you wouldn’t run that without a VPN, would you?