- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/20071879
OK, so that is in the running for clickbait hed of the year, but it’s actually apt for the column.
It may seem paradoxical to write this in an opinion piece. But it needs saying: arguments alone have no meaningful effect on people’s beliefs. And the implicit societal acceptance that they do is getting in the way of other, more effective forms of political thinking and doing.
I’m a researcher who studies the intersection of psychology and politics, and my work has increasingly led me to believe that our culture’s understanding of how political persuasion works is wrong. In the age of Donald Trump, Elon Musk and the rise of the far right, commentators have endlessly opined on the problems of fake news, polarisation and more. But they’ve mostly been looking in the wrong places – and have focused too much on words.
Take “debates”. They’re a central part of most election campaigns around the world, seen as so influential that they’re often governed by strict rules around media coverage and balance. Yet evidence suggests that watching debates has no impact on opinions whatsoever. In 2019 researchers analysed 56 TV debates in 22 elections in the US, Canada, New Zealand and Europe from 1952 to 2016. The study tracked nearly 100,000 respondents to see whether debates helped undecided or decided voters to make up or change their minds. They found no evidence that they did. In 2012, a reporter ran another analysis about whether debates influenced election outcomes. As he put it: “The effects of debates on eventual votes are likely mild, and, in most cases, effectively nil.”
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I see the point the author is trying to make, but they conveniently left out a major counter example: the last Biden/Trump debate was such a disaster that Biden had to drop out of the race.
Their take: they couldn’t convince Trump voters, so trying is pointless: maybe we shouldn’t even have a debate.
My take: Bad debaters. They’ve been getting worse over time. What’s the best move for a bad debater? Don’t debate.
It’s easy to look at the data and think that people can’t be convinced. Yet, its also easy to look at the Trump debates and see they weren’t really trying to convince anyone of much.
You can’t convince people if you don’t really have a message to convince them of aside from “I’m not Trump” and “Trump is bad.” They already believed that: Both candidates were bad, and both candidates are bad at delivering the promises. After three elections with Trump, it’s really like a broken record at this point.
Yes, it will!
To fix this, progressives need to take back wealth and power, so that everyone is supported in expanding their lives.
But there is a problem: The progressives of today don’t want to support everyone anymore. They’re mirroring the tribalism of the far right but with the disadvantage of focusing on minorities, effectively reducing the pool of voters by a large amount, ignoring a lot of people in the middle. Those people don’t vote for the far right either (because predatory capitalism and fascism obviously), they don’t vote for anyone because it doesn’t make a difference to them who’s in charge, they’re screwed either way. Those are the people the progressives would have to listen to. But it looks like that’s not going to happen, rather the opposite. And because of that there’s no way for the progressives to take back the power anytime soon.
Which progressives are you talking about? Socialists are very aware of the problems of ordinary working people, who I think would be those you characterize as “people in the middle.” And I don’t know who is interested in only helping minorities, except for progressive organizations with a mandate to help particular minority groups. How and where do you see that happening?
Something tells me “progressives only care about minorities” isnt coming from someone with any actual beliefs
Go on, put me in the MAGA box. You’re only proving my point by doing so. I’m one of those who don’t vote for any political party because it doesn’t make a difference, the result is the same.
I’m one of those who don’t vote for any political party
If you do not vote, you are participating in the agenda of the authoritarians who want to take the right to vote away from everyone (e.g. Donald Trump saying “you won’t have to vote anymore”). “Voting doesn’t matter” is their propaganda. If you repeat his message, you have been fooled by the propaganda and are now helping to spread it.
DO NOT BUY THIS CRAP.
If you encourage others not to vote, you are complicit with the authoritarians.
I’m not going to tell you who to vote for, but fucking VOTE. People fought wars over that, demanded changes in law for that, marched on Washington for that, got assassinated for speaking about that. Anyone who tells you it doesn’t matter is a fool, ignorant of the lessons of history.
No, I’m not participating in any agenda. That’s the point. I’m basically anti-political now. I reject everything that’s available because everything available rejects me. It wasn’t like that in the past, but now it is and I can’t do anything about it, therefore I have to accept it. I learned to accept a lot in the last few years.
I don’t encourage anybody regarding anything, it’s their business who they vote for or if they vote at all. It’s their world, not mine. Both conservatives and progressives made sure that I understood this lesson. It was a surprise regarding progressives because I thought they were the good guys. Well, live and learn.
But hey. I make it easier for you. Let’s just say I don’t exist. Cases like mine would make the progressives look just as bad as the conservatives and you don’t want that, right? And because I don’t exist, my potential vote doesn’t exist either. Simple sophism. Maybe I’m just a MAGA who votes for Trump anyway. Maybe I’m just a Russian troll who isn’t allowed to vote. Maybe I’m just an AI which isn’t allowed to vote either (yet). Maybe I’m just a fever dream, it’s up to you. You can choose freely to make sure that the progressives will never look bad by denying my whole existence. Wouldn’t that make everything so much easier? No need for self-criticism and reformation - just like the conservatives. Neat! And so convenient. Yeah, let’s do it that way.
And if we’re at this stage, why not pretend that Trump’s second presidency is a fever dream as well? I mean, the progressives are perfect, right? Because they must be. Therefore they must have won the election and now we’re actually living in a progressive Utopia instead of the Fourth Reich in the making. No ICE, no self-proclaimed health experts with brainworms and fear of vaccines and of course no orange guy who likes little girls a little bit too much. It’s all just a nightmare caused by too much pizza before bed. Isn’t the easiest solution always the best?
I’m not participating in any agenda
If my agenda is for you to not participate in the vote, then by abstaining you end up participating in my agenda whether you want to or not. If I can disappoint you to the point of not bothering the next time, then that’s 1 less person affecting the outcome of the vote, making it incrementally easier to forecast and manipulate the results.
I’m basically anti-political now, it’s [conservatives’ and progressives’] world, not mine.
Others have said it better than I, but I worry this just plays into the hands of authoritarians who rely on apathy such as this to seize more power. I implore you to find your own terms on which you can engage with politics, but do (re) engage with them.
Just because some of us stop paying attention to “politics” doesn’t mean politicians lose any power - it generally goes the other way.
I don’t see the point of spending a lot of time and money to go to the next polling station just to vote for some rich elitist hypocrite who actually put the final nail in my coffin. I sacrificed enough in the past, now it’s your turn to do something for me for once. Quid pro quo.
For what it’s worth, I put you in the “enlightened centrist” box. Someone who is heavily influenced by the far right and genuinely doesn’t realize it. You may not be MAGA, but you are most definitely being manipulated into doing their work. Your own words admit as much to us all, even if you haven’t realized it.
If it makes it easier for you, sure, go on. Just like it makes it easier for me not to vote. It all doesn’t matter anymore anyway.
You sure do a lot of complaining for someone who doesn’t participate.
That’s just my ego which wants to keep me alive. No worries, I will get rid of it soon. Just like you will get rid of me soon. Just like the Fourth Reich will get rid of you soon. Nothing to worry, nothing valuable will be lost because we live in a just world. If something bad happens to you it’s only your own fault, therefore you’re worthless, right? Like me complaining which justifies what happens to me. In short: I get what I deserve, you get what you deserve. Everything is exactly how it’s supposed to be.
I hope you mean that you vote for third party candidates, rather than not voting. Voting does matter - you’re sending a message by who you do or don’t vote for. Not voting sends the message that you aren’t engaged with politics and therefore your opinions don’t matter. Voting for a third party sends the message that you aren’t happy with the current status quo.
Of couse I’m not voting for anyone. Why should I vote for a political party which only makes my life worse, ultimately killing me? I never voted for a conservative party (I’m actually moderate left) because they obviously never had anything to offer. And now the progressives have reached the same level. There is no difference. I’ll be gone in a few months (thanks to both progressive and conservative politics), anything that happens afterwards is not my problem anymore, only the problem of people much more privileged than I am and who refused to share those privileges with me for once. It’s not like anyone would need my vote anyway. If there really was such a political party or movement, then they would have offered me something. Conclusion: Everything is exactly how it’s supposed to be.
If there really was such a political party or movement, then they would have offered me something.
No, they wouldn’t, because you’ve shown them through voter apathy that they can safely ignore you. Doing things you want politically won’t benefit them and ignoring you won’t harm them. If you aren’t going to engage with them, why would they engage with you?
I’ve voted long enough in the past. But should that even matter regarding the progressives claiming to follow values like humanism? Or could it be… that they’re no better than conservatives?
You’ve presented an opinion as fact and don’t have anything to back it up. The issue you’re having here is completely self inflicted.
Sure buddy.
I’m not your buddy, pal.
It doesn’t matter how detailed my description would be and how much hard evidence I would provide (Arguments, like in the article above!). You don’t know me and you’re not walking in my shoes either. Because of that it’s impossible for you to understand. Which is okay, I’m used to it. I walk away in peace and take my vote with me.
Well you could try. It might be enlightening for people like me who don’t know where you’re coming from or who your comments refer to. There are lots of different kinds of “progressives” so when you talk about them using this very general word I really don’t know who you have in mind.
They can’t explain because it’s a BS take. Different walks of life for two people have no bearing on the general population, progressives, or how they feel about each other. Perhaps there are some progressives that meet the initial claim, but that claim was directed at progressives and moderates in general.
Literally all of them now. No No true Scotsman possible.
