Highlights:
Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned a small group of lawmakers last week that his department is tracking the possibility that Azerbaijan could soon invade Armenia, according to two people familiar with the conversation.
Azerbaijiani President Ilham Aliyev has previously called on Armenia to open a “corridor” along its southern border, linking mainland Azerbaijan to an exclave that borders Turkey and Iran. Aliyev has threatened to solve the issue “by force.”
They also have many of the pipelines that send oil/gas from that region to Europe. Hence the hand wringing and platitudes from the West rather than actual help. Aliyev knows this.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Gas_Corridor
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/why-volatile-south-caucasus-is-important-oil-gas-supplies-2023-09-22/
And when Armenia had the gall to even hint at trying to break from under Russia’s thumb to the West, Aliyev got the ok from Russia to teach them a lesson.
https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-us-military-exercise-kicks-off-near-yerevan-us-spokesperson-2023-09-11/
Azerbaijian took Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh 8 days later, in spite of a prior Russian security agreement to prevent exactly that.